I. Basic Knowledge

Rubber refers to a highly elastic polymer material with reversible deformation. It is elastic at room temperature and can undergo significant deformation under a small external force. After the external force is removed, it can return to its original state. Rubber is a completely amorphous polymer. Its glass transition temperature (Tg) is low and its molecular weight is often very large, exceeding several hundred thousand. Rubber is divided into two types: natural rubber and synthetic rubber. Natural rubber is processed by extracting rubber from plants such as rubber trees and rubber grass. Synthetic rubber is obtained through polymerization reactions of various monomers. Rubber products are widely used in various aspects of industry or daily life.

II. Production, Supply and Sales Situation

1. Production situation

Global production: According to data from the Natural Rubber Producers Association, global natural rubber production continued to rise before 2018, reaching 14.335 million tons in 2018. Subsequently, global natural rubber production began to decline, especially in 2020. Affected by various adverse factors such as the pandemic, weather and diseases, global natural rubber production dropped to 12.678 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.86%. Due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, weather conditions and pests and diseases, major natural rubber producing countries around the world have experienced production cuts. Among them, the output of natural rubber in Thailand in 2020 was 4.423 million tons, a decrease of 56.9% compared with 2019. Indonesia's natural rubber output in 2020 was 2.896 million tons, a decrease of 40.5% compared to 2019. Vietnam, being less affected by typhoons, saw its natural rubber output increase by 5% in 2020 compared to 2019.

2. Import and export situation

Export: In 2020, due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, China's natural rubber production decreased. To meet domestic demand, the export of natural rubber was reduced. According to data from China's customs, China's export volume of natural rubber (40012900) was 635 tons in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 64.33%, compared with 264 tons in 201. According to data from China's customs, China's import volume of natural rubber (40012900) was 231,000 tons in 2020, an increase of 8.1% compared with 2019. From January to April 2021, China's natural rubber output was 11,800 tons.

III. Factors Influencing Prices

1. The economic environment: As an important industrial raw material, the price fluctuations of natural rubber are closely related to the international and domestic economic environment. When the overall economic environment is favorable, the market needs to develop and the demand is sufficient. At this time, the demand for natural rubber will increase, thereby driving up its price.
2. Development of major rubber-using Industries: The automotive industry is the largest consumer of natural rubber (accounting for approximately 65% of the total consumption of natural rubber), and the development of the automotive industry has driven the progress of the tire manufacturing industry. Therefore, the development of the automotive industry and related tire industries will affect the price of natural rubber.